The 06z GFS has Hurricane Florence making landfall at 923 mb which would be a borderline Category 5 hurricane. Take this very seriously & keep your eye on it. God bless everyone, T
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Hurricane Florence Targets Carolinas, Appalachians, With Potentially Catastrophic Flooding, Destructive Winds; Hurricane Watch Issued
Florence remains a dangerous Category 4 hurricane.
A strike on the Carolinas will occur Thursday into early Friday.
Hurricane and storm surge watches have been issued.
A life-threatening storm surge is expected with landfall.
Catastrophic inland flash flooding and major river flooding may result.
Tropical-storm-force winds may arrive as soon as late Wednesday night.
Florence is also generating dangerous surf and rip currents along the East Coast.
Hurricane Florence will lash the Carolinas and Virginia late Thursday as an intense hurricane with life-threatening storm surge, destructive winds and potentially catastrophic inland rainfall flooding as one of the strongest strikes on record for this part of the East Coast.
A hurricane watch and storm surge watch are in effect for the entire coast of North Carolina, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, and the South Carolina coast as far south as Edisto Beach. This includes Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington and the Outer Banks.
Hurricane watches also extend to some extent inland in the Carolinas, including such cities as Goldsboro, Kinston and Lumberton, North Carolina.
These watches mean hurricane conditions and a life-threatening storm surge (near the coast or sounds) are possible. The hurricane watch is typically issued 48 hours ahead of the arrival of tropical storm force winds which would make last-minute preparations difficult.
If you're in the East Coast threat zone, it's time to finish up your hurricane preparedness plan and be ready to implement, if necessary. Residents in coastal areas should follow evacuation orders from local officials because of the potential for life-threatening storm-surge flooding.
Florence replaced its eyewall Tuesday morning, something that can happen multiple times in intense hurricanes. During this period, the hurricane may level off or weaken a tad, but then gain strength as the outer eyewall contracts inward, replacing the old inner eyewall, leaving a larger core, with, most importantly, a larger wind field.
Florence underwent rapid intensification Sunday into Monday, when its winds jumped up from 75 mph to 130 mph in just 25 hours ending 12 p.m. EDT Monday.
Some additional strengthening is possible, and it's not out of the question that Florence could approach Category 5 status for a time by Wednesday.
Florence is generating swells that are affecting parts of the U.S. East Coast. Swells are also propagating to Bermuda and north- and northeastward-facing coasts of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispañiola, the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.
These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions at these beaches.
- Locations Potentially Affected: Areas from the Carolinas to southern Virginia are at greatest risk for major impacts from Florence. Locations farther south, such as Georgia, and farther north into the mid-Atlantic should also monitor Florence for any forecast changes.
Potential U.S. Impacts
- Storm-Surge Impact: A destructive storm surge will accompany the eye coming ashore Thursday. It will be highest to the north or northeast of where the center comes ashore. Large, battering waves will ride atop this surge. All evacuation orders from local officials should be followed because of this dangerous threat. Significant beach erosion is also likely on the southeastern U.S. coast. Elevated water levels may persist for some time after landfall in areas where onshore winds persist.
Here are the latest storm surge inundation forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, if the eye of Florence arrives at high tide:
- Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet, South Carolina: 2 to 4 feet
- Murrells Inlet, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina: 4 to 6 feet
- Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, North Carolina, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers: 6 to 12 feet
- Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina: 5 to 8 feet
- Ocracoke Inlet to the North Carolina - Virginia border: 3 to 5 feet
Rainfall Impact: Florence will not only produce heavy rain along the coast, but also far inland across the Carolinas, mid-Atlantic and possibly other parts of the Southeast. That heavy rain threat may last for days if Florence stalls out into this weekend or early next week, as suggested by some forecast guidance.